War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".