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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd