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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

But this year's race is profoundly different. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending together. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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