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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japan's territory as Beijing escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.